Aug has been going very well thus far. Got off to a super hot start the first 8 days before running into a vicious day on the 9th where I dropped about $3,100. However since then I've been hot again and even had a +$3,800 day yesterday. I think I'm up right around 10k for Aug right now.
I don't spend a lot of time on the poker forums, not typing on them at least. I do like to troll around them a bit and see what people are saying every once in a while. I just bring it up because of all the stuff I keep seeing about these EV calculators, or all in EV or luck calculators, or whatever the fuck they are called. They tell you how above or below EV you've been running, basically if you've been getting unlucky or not based on hands you get all in with. I think anyways? I'm not real up on what they are all about because I don't use them, but good lord. Seriously. It's like it turns into a contest about who can post the worst graph. A contest of who is more unlucky. Wah wah wah, look how far below EV i've run. Jesus. I guess it's comforting to know you've been getting unlucky after getting your ass kicked for a few sessions? I don't know, it's just a phenomenon that's popped up recently. Kinda funny how nobody posts graphs of how far above EV they've ran, but there are ones everywhere about how below EV people are running. Besides, what if your calculator shows you way below EV, but you've also won tons of matches by hitting coolers. Couldn't it appear you've been unlucky from an all in EV standpoint when in reality you've actually been lucky from a card distribution standpoint? I saw Jhub3000 touch on this subject a tad in one of his blog entries a month or so ago. It's probably something I'll never get into that much, I don't see too much of a benefit in it. Besides, if I've been losing I know it's because I've been getting unlucky. I don't need some dumb fucking calculator to show me that. ;) Just kinda joking.
I also have to laugh when I see people talk about prolonged downswings that stretch out for months. If you are having downswings that stretch out for months it's because you're playing badly, or your edge was not that big to start with. Either that or you are not putting in nearly enough volume monthly. When someone tries to tell them so much, they obviously get super defensive and spout off some shit about how it must be nice to never run bad, to run like god, blah blah blah. Sorry, get better or find another job. Quit bitching so much because in reality nobody gives a fuck about your downswing. Nobody with a 7%+ roi who is on their A game is going to lose money over several thousand games. I mean it's not 100% impossible or anything, but neither is tossing a coin and having it land on heads 40 times in a row. It's just highly highly highly unlikely. Shit like that just kinda cracks me up is all.
Not much else to say for now.
Till next time
bartchalker
7 comments:
I definitely agree that most people use EV graphs as a crutch, but I don't think that there is no positive use for them either. I see a lot of guys complaining about how they "ran 10 bi's below ev today!" You're right, it doesn't take into account coolers etc etc. Over the long run tho (2k+ games or so), you can at least get a reasonably close idea of how things are going for you.
I was messing around with the husng.com variance calculator today and put in a bunch of 2500 game samples for my 220 winrate (6.5%). I prob put it in 200ish times, and the worst graph I saw was +11k and the best was +74k. 63k difference and you can play the exact same skill level and have either graph. I think that is an incredibly hard idea for people to wrap their head around.
I'm running 74 buyins below ev since may 1st (2500 games). It's made me a better player and taught me to stfu and grind. I think if I didn't have a program like HEM to give me a reasonable idea of how truly awful things have been going, I would have gone crazy, started re-tooling my game, and things probably would have gotten worse.
I'm not using it as a crutch. I just use it to keep myself thinking longterm and to help myself understand variance's beastlike nature.
It has helped me to keep confidence in my game while only making 22k over my last 2500 games, when I've had samples of 2500 games where I've made over 50k etc.
Hokie
Well typed and good point. I guess I've had some pretty wicked runs where I still realized I was getting unlucky but maybe it would have helped me keep my sanity a bit if I had some stats to back up my unluckiness. I guess in your case it's just trying to look at the bright side. I mean obv making 22k over 2,500 games for you is a downswing because you're probably used to making 35k+ in that amount of time. But making $9/game is something some people would love to be able to do. But yeah, running that bad for 3 1/2 months has got to be brutal. 3 months can seem like an eternity when you can't get it turned around.
It's actually kind of amazing how the confidence of being a winner in this game for years can be shattered in a matter of weeks in some cases. Sick game for sure.
Better luck, later
Nice to see you're making easy money Bart.
Kinda agree to everything in this post and the comments. (sounds a bit dull, i know).
At our level the only solid indication on luck is how much you've been winning or losing.
But when you've been having bad results in 1K+ samples it's nice to get support from luck calculators (even though the calculator might be wrong)
I also think life situations outside of the laptop could easily affect the game significantly.
I hold my hand up and admit I'm a fish who sometimes uses the EV stats as an excuse for me playing like a bitch and losing money!
Are the super turbos killing the "normal" action for you high stakes guys?
wake up blog!
Yea, agreed with Mr. T-Money there, wake up blog!
Funny to me how we can be so concerned about what mortals think (who’ll soon croak) rather than what Almighty God thinks (who’s immortal); funny to me is how the U.S. follows the whorizontal which’ll hit-you-in-the-ass rather than the Vertical which takes U.S. Home. Think, please, before you do something stupid --- Fear thy Divine Judgment, dude, as I am, and then everything will swiftly dwindle into BS on earth, k? Meet me Upstairs in the Great Beyond where we‘ll have a beer… or several. God bless.
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